I know Jonathan will lose 2015 election.Every honest political observer knows this fact. Even some chest-beating Jona(TAN)ians know that if their principal should contest an election today,he would be roundly defeated by General Buhari. They know this; but they will not profess it openly. The reason for my position is that the GOODWILL which Mr Jonathan enjoyed in 2011 is on vacation: he has bungled the goodwill. And unfortunately, he has got no visible achievement to hold on to as an alternative. All the ‘transformation agenda’ that are bandied around by his supporters are garnished and cooked-up.
Around this period in 2010,no-one will refute the fact, Mr Jonathan was an household name in Nigeria. The I-have-no-shoe wave blew to every nook and cranny of the country. But today, he struggles to convince even people from his south-south geo-political zone that he has represented them well. Major roads in the Niger-Delta areas are as unmotorable as roads in other part of the country are. The second Niger -Bridge,which was his cardinal promise for the people of the south-east and their reason for giving him unalloyed supports in the 2011 election, only exists on paper. In spite the pomp and pageantry that heralded the official ‘take-off’ of the project, the site is still as silent as a graveyard.
During the 2011’s election, my two very politically vibrant parents were routing for GEJ to become the president. They campaigned rigorously for him even though they knew I was (and I’m still) a die-in-the-wool BUHARIST. They premised their decision on the fact that GEJ was from a poor home and he would feel the pulse of an average Nigerian. But today, because of GEJ’s abysmal performance, my father is a number-one fan of General Buhari. And loathes everything GEJ stands for. To my father, Jonathan’s is a classical case of falling from GRACE to GRASS.
In the south-west today,only the people that are benefiting directly from the abyss in which the GEJ has plunged the country into are campaigning for his re-election.The politicians spearheading his campaign in the south-west are Buruji Kashamu, Bode George, Femi Fani-Kayode, Gbenga Daniel and a host of other failed,tainted and corruption-ridden persons: no decent citizen wants Jonathan back.The south-westerners have every reason to reject Jonathan at the polls in 2015.The Lagos-Ibadan expressway upon which his 2011 election was hinged is in a deplorable condition. Also, the Sure-P/FERMA programme, a pallatiave measure set-up to appease the unemployed youth of this zone, has become a massive fraud: because no applicant has collected any salary in the last six months. And yet they coerced the unsuspecting applicants to cough-out over N20,000 to obtain the application form and uniform for a ghostly employment. GEJ has totally abandoned the south-west people and one would be tempted to conclude that a spell was cast on him to close his eyes towards MY people. The south-west zone is strategic. The electorate here are mature, exposed and enlightened.Even if any of their folk fails to fulfill his electoral promises, they will turn their back at him. But if you fulfill your promise to them, they will never desert you.What any politician needs to give them is ‘exemplary and purposeful leadership’. Unfortunately, Jonathan has failed in this regard. And in 2015,he wants them to cast their votes for him. This thinking and expectation is antithetical. No reasonable and free-born Yoruba will support GEJ’s re-election. GEJ knows this but he’s being deceived by his numerous hangers-on.He knows the table has changed; he knows the political situations of 2011 were not the same with today’s realities.
In 2011,General Buhari could not campaign in the south-south and the south-east because of paucity of funds and hostile dispositions of the political juggernauts in these parts of the country. During that period, infact some Governors issued a political ‘fatwah’ to Buhari.He was tagged a persona non-grata. But despite the bottlenecks, Buhari garnered a whooping 12 million votes! 12 million votes under the CPC that was less than 6-month old. The CPC that had no Governor, no Senator, no House of Reps member, no assembly member, no councillor: no ready-made political structure. Conversely, GEJ with the power of incumbency: state funds, police, DSS, Army, Navy, Air-force got 22 million votes.
However, today, the APC whose platform Gen. Buhari is planning to use to clinch the presidency, has about 14 governors and still counting… Imo, Kwara, Edo, River states where GEJ held sway in 2011 are now for the APC.At least the states are controlled by the APC!
Whereas the PDP has launched all the missiles in its armoury to discredit Mr Buhari, it is surprising that the support base of the former military head of state keeps on expanding. Having realised that the jihadist-propaganda is stale and is not flying, the PDP and their goons are now mouthing the issue of age. But alas, they have forgotten the fact that the Great Awolowo and Azikwe were about 74 and 77 years old respectively in 1983 when the two country’s founding fathers contested that year’s presidential election. The PDP have also forgotten that their first president in the current republic Olusegun Obasanjo was about 70years in 2007 when he was fighting tooth and nail to subvert the constitution in order to perpetuate himself in office. Further, the PDP will not have it smooth if they anchor Jonathan’s campaign on age because the party parades the oldest governor in the country in the person of Martin Elechi of Ebonyi State who is far older than Mr. Buhari.
The ASUU/ASUP/COEASU ‘strike’, Oduaghate, $9.8m arms deal, January 2012 fuel subsidy removal, immigration recruitment scam, Chibok girls abandonment and the failed Ceasefire with the Boko Haram sect will characterise the 2015 campaign; and any of these issues is weighty enough to send GEJ back to the creek of Otuoke, his ancestral home.
Adebayo Adedeji can be followed on twitter @ElderKupo